Laning test - ROF
Posted 18 August 2009 - 02:54 PM
Posted 18 August 2009 - 04:31 PM
yeah, thanks man. I never knew what your forum name was - and as we showed in the video - Gordon couldn't remember either. Thanks a ton.
Posted 18 August 2009 - 04:32 PM
sorry dude, well get it in there as an annotation.
Posted 18 August 2009 - 09:33 PM
<!--sizeo:1--><span style="font-size:8pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo-->"do the math, save the world"<!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->
Posted 19 August 2009 - 07:58 AM
That last gunman really had it out for Gordon. Whoa.
yeah, when he was shooting he was getting a little snarky late in the test. She felt that she owed him a little taste.
Posted 19 August 2009 - 08:59 AM
"stfu dont jinx me ima cut you bitch" - CrazyLittle
"250+lb. men don't 'come out of nowhere'." - PrometheanFlame
"Feel free to think of me as a female anytime you want." - Rawrsome
"Ignoring a few choice posts. *rolleyes* " - Miss_Hell
Posted 19 August 2009 - 09:55 AM
yup, surprised the hell out of me - but it certainly seemed that way.
Posted 19 August 2009 - 10:13 AM
It's really awesome to see evidence of this - people have been trying to do the math on this correctly for literally years, and this was a simple, relatively conclusive test with proper equipment and recording. Kudos.
I'm not that surprised by the results, though I expected 15bps to be slightly more daunting than the probability suggests it is. I think the hit frequency would rise slightly with higher sample size, off the cuff. The only thing, in retrospect, I wish there was was a way to tell how fast a given runner was moving @ the lane (certainly possible with a background yardstick or something + the highspeed...just to see if the speed correlates heavily with the missing or if it is more timing/luck.
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Posted 19 August 2009 - 10:23 AM
I've got to tell you - the first run through 15 WAS very intimidating. It sounds like it's going to cut you in half.
We kept using the term "phasing" for hit probability. It's not exactly right - but gives the right impression of what seemed to happen. The number of total hits did go up with ROF - but the chance of being hit didn't necessarily. We had more instances of multiple hits at 15 bps - but 10 was the most likely to put at least one ball on a runner - indicating that it really is as much about luck as anything.
Something to note in the HS footage - which is even with good paint and a very consistent shooting gun shooting in an underbored situation - the balls do tend to stack up. The variations in speed really bunch the balls together. It's not visible from the shooter's viewpoint - since it looks like a stream from that POV. Between the "stacking" and the reality that at 100' the cone of paint has spread out to 3' or wider - THAT's where the magic happens. I might dig through the footage and try to find a good example, but there are times where you can obviously see two balls - one hook just to the front side of a runner - and the next one in line just to the back side of a runner. they make it through clean - but both balls were timed to hit - if they were on-line. On the other side there are a few clips in that footage showing multiple hits. I think that with perfect trajectory the 15 bps might be impossible to run through - but you add velocity fluctuation and the terrible ballistics of a paintball - and bingo! you make it through.
here's the data if people want to crunch it:
Chris - 15 bps 0,0 - 12 bps 0,2 - 10 bps 1,1 - 8 bps 0,1
Tim Underbakke - 15 bps 2,0 - 12 bps 1,1 - 10 bps 2,1 - 8 bps 0,1
Tim "AKA" - 15 bps 2,0 - 12 bps 1,2 - 10 bps 1,0 - 8 bps 1,0
Jim "MondoMor" - 15 bps 1,1 - 12 bps 0,0 - 10 bps 1,1 - 8 bps 1,0
Bryce - 15 bps 1,1 - 12 bps 0,1 - 10 bps 1,1 - 8 bps 0,0
Danielle - 15 bps 0,2 - 12 bps 1,0 - 10 bps 1,1 - 8 bps 0,0
Jesse - 15 bps 2,3 - 12 bps 2,1 - 10 bps 1,1 - 8 bps 0,0
extra 15 bps runs by Bryce and Gordon
Gordon: 1,0,1,1,1,0,4 (with gun following me on last 2)